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Below are the 20 most recent journal entries recorded in winewiskeywomen's LiveJournal:

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Saturday, January 22nd, 2011
6:07 am
out-migration
Atlas Van Lines released their 2010 report; 1942 hauls from AZ, 1798 to AZ. First time in 10 years there's a net outflow. U-Haul current rate to Houston is more than 15% higher Phoenix to Houston than from Houston to Phoenix. Folx be fleeing. i can't blame them.
Saturday, October 16th, 2010
6:08 am
fraud
i haven't posted anything financial for a while, this dry lengthy article will perhaps atone.

"The Mortgage Fraud Scandal Is The Biggest In Human History

We have long known that lender fraud was rampant during the real estate boom. The FBI began warning of an “epidemic” of mortgage fraud as early as 2004. We know that mortgage originators invented “low doc” and “no doc” loans, encouraged borrowers to take out “liar loans”, and promoted “NINJA loans” (no income, no job, no assets, no problem!). All of these schemes were fraudulent from the get-go. Property appraisers were involved, paid to overvalue real estate. That is fraud. The securitizers packaged trash into bundles that ratings agencies blessed with the triple A seal of approval. By their own admission, raters worked with securitizers to provide the rating desired, never looking at the loan tapes to see what they were rating. Fraud. Venerable investment banks like Goldman Sachs packaged the trashiest securities into collateralized debt obligations at the behest of hedge fund managers--who were allowed to choose the most toxic of the toxic waste—then sold the CDOs on to their own customers and allowed the hedge funds to bet against them. More fraud.Read more...Collapse )

Current Mood: grumpy
Sunday, February 14th, 2010
6:53 am
The Maricopa County Assessor sent me a Valentine of sorts; my property valuation dropped to $94k from $150k in 1 yr. Down from $226k in 2007. 2 years ago Forbes called my 'hood the 7th most overpriced 'hood in America.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/29/overpriced-zips-homes-forbeslife-cx_mw_0729realestate_slide_5.html?thisSpeed=undefined
Wednesday, February 10th, 2010
5:10 am
BOYCOTT ARIZONA UNTIL SHERIFF JOE ARPAIO IS OUT OF OFFICE!!
We are calling on the world to boycott Arizona until Sheriff Joe Arpaio is out of office. We ask: Tourists to avoid Arizona, businesses and consumers to not purchase anything produced in, or shipped from Arizona; we ask all groups and associations to hold their conventions elsewhere, we ask all financial institutions to not loan to any Arizona company, business or individual; we ask that all governments on earth close their consulates in Arizona- UNTIL Sheriff Joe Arpaio is no longer in office.

In 1990, Arizonans voted down an iniative that would have created an MLK Day holiday in AZ. Many AZ groups called for a boycott of AZ. The economic pressures brought by the boycott convinced AZ voters to OK the holiday in 1992. WE CAN DO IT AGAIN!

Find us on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=281108634346&ref=nf
Thursday, December 17th, 2009
9:53 pm
Glen Ellyn* gets Grinched!
The TV showed a swarm of tykes crying, shrieking and banging their heads in disappointment.
"What was supposed to be a magical train ride to meet Santa Claus turned into disappointment Saturday for dozens of families who were bypassed by the Glen Ellyn Park District's "Polar Express," participants said."
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=343880

*My dear friend and stalwart comrade Matthew lived in Glen Ellyn, Illinois.

Current Mood: giggly
Sunday, December 6th, 2009
4:48 am
weather
Had a light frost yesterday- 'bout time the weather matched the calendar!
Speaking of the calendar, the IWW Labor History Calendars are in. $12.50! Go ahead, shop around; you're not gonna find a better deal!
Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009
5:55 am
Arpaio shows the white feather, flees from choir.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/11/30/20091130abrk-asuarpaio1130.html
These are the lyrics of the song that was sung at the Arpaio event at the ASU Cronkite School of Journalism on November 30, 2009.

Immigration Rhapsody

Is this legitimate?
Is this atrocity?
Caught up in politics-
No sense of reality-
Open your eyes
Look down to the south and see-
The border stops brown folks, they cannot cross the line.
But its easy come, easy go,
for the rich, n’their cargo.
Anyway the migrants flow, doesn’t really matter to me,
To me
Read more...Collapse )
Wednesday, November 18th, 2009
4:38 am
Phoenix will become the next Detroit
Lately i haven't posted much on the housing bust; everyone can see what's going on. This article confirms my anecdotal suspicions. Here's the money shot: "John Graham, president of Sunbelt Holdings, said he sees flat growth as good news because he thought the Valley had lost 200,000 people in the past few years."
---------------
A move to fix Valley growth projections
Analysts revise methods, find no population rise since 2007
Read more...Collapse )
Friday, October 9th, 2009
5:55 pm
Another Nail In The Coffin Of The Housing Bubble
"New federal loan-guarantee rules imposed to fend off future government losses from plummeting condominium prices have rendered condos utterly worthless, Valley real-estate experts said.

The Federal Housing Administration rules, which took effect Oct. 1, prohibit any new FHA-backed loans on condo units in projects that include more than 25 percent commercial space.

In addition, no single investor - including the developer - may own more than 10 percent of the units in a particular project. That particular restriction alone creates a catch-22 from which condo builders most likely cannot escape, said mortgage originator Jill Hoogendyk of Wallick & Volk in Glendale.

Another rule that has sellers and brokers scratching their heads prohibits FHA loans in condo developments that aren't "primarily residential," which could be taken to mean the FHA won't guarantee loans in future mixed-use projects.

"I'm predicting that what we'll see is whole condominium complexes sitting empty," Hoogendyk said.

The new rules are a reaction to substantial losses on federally insured condominium mortgages in the past year, government officials have said. In Maricopa County, condominium foreclosures have outpaced condo-unit sales by nearly two to one since Jan. 1, according to real-estate analyst Zach Bowers of Ion Data in Mesa. According to Bowers, lenders foreclosed on about 8,200 condo units between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, compared with about 4,900 units sold during the same period.

"It's been pretty much consistent throughout the year that no one's buying condos," Bowers said. "The whole market seems to have stagnated."

The new restrictions won't directly affect high-end, luxury condos that sell for more than the Federal Housing Administration's roughly $350,000 lending limit, but Hoogendyk said FHA loans are by far the most commonly used loan among condo buyers. Without that option, buyers would have to obtain conventional loans, which are more expensive and difficult to qualify for, or they would have to pay cash.

Hoogendyk said the FHA rules amount to a death sentence for the Phoenix-area condo market, which had only been kept on life support by the continued availability of FHA loans.

Creating a special restriction that only applies to one type of housing is discriminatory, local critics said, and it punishes existing condominium owners by making their properties nearly impossible to sell.

"They'll lose everything," Hoogendyk said, "And quite honestly, they'll move just because they're afraid to live there."

Bowers said there are Phoenix-area condominium projects in which only a handful of buyers purchased individual units. The only viable use for such projects would be renting the unsold units as apartments, which many condo building owners already have been doing.

However, most have continued trying to sell units, hoping to eventually sell out as the real-estate market recovers. Because of the new rules, local and national experts seem to agree that owner-occupants in half-empty condo buildings are now practically doomed to foreclosure. Hoogendyk said the last thing Arizona's real-estate market needs is government decisions that hinder its recovery.

"They should be making it more attractive to buy condos, not less," she said."

http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2009/10/09/20091009biz-condos1010.html
Saturday, September 26th, 2009
2:28 pm
Wednesday, September 9th, 2009
3:59 am
Lower Rents On The Way In Metro Phoenix
{not mentioned in this article is the outflow of people from the area}
Lower rents likely as more investors buy apartments

by J. Craig Anderson - Sept. 9, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Rent prices are likely to fall significantly in the coming months as a growing number of commercial real-estate investors buy up struggling apartment communities, according to some local real-estate analysts.

The same phenomenon that has driven down home-sale prices appears to be occurring in the apartment market, they said, with cash buyers lowering prices as much as is necessary to attract paying customers.

As a result, average rent prices have dropped an estimated 15 percent or more in the past year, and they could fall another 15 percent in the coming year, one local analyst said.

Because cash investors don't have a loan to repay, there really is no bottom line at which to hold their rent prices, said Jim Kasten, a Phoenix real-estate analyst and investor.

The problem for apartment owners who do have mortgages is that they'll have to lower their rent prices, too, if they hope to remain competitive, said Kasten, co-owner of Kasten Long Commercial Group.

"Most every property that sold in the last quarter was either lender-owned or lender-controlled, which means a short sale," he said. "If I was a pessimist, I'd say rental rates are probably going to drop another 15 percent."

Phoenix analyst Bob Kammrath, who also follows the multifamily-housing market, agreed that investors paying greatly deflated prices for apartment buildings probably will push rents lower.

That's on top of severe cuts in rental fees apartment owners already have taken during the past year because of new competition from investor-owned houses for rent, said Kammrath, owner of Kammrath & Associates.

Official rent-price figures from Arizona State University's Real Estate Studies center show an average decrease in monthly rent of 5.6 percent during the past 12 months, but Kammrath said the actual reduction is closer to 15 percent to 20 percent.

The ASU numbers don't include concessions offered by landlords, which have become substantial, he said.

Valley apartment owners are advertising free flat-panel TVs, Nintendo Wii video-game systems and other perks to entice new tenants to their communities, including lots of free rent.

"I've seen some places offering two or three free months' rent if you sign a 12-month lease," he said.

Kammrath, who tracks monthly sales of apartment buildings, said the median sale price of Valley apartment buildings with 10,000 square feet or more has dropped from about $105 a square foot in all of 2008 to roughly $61 a square foot in the first half of 2009.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2009/09/09/20090909biz-apartments0909.html
Monday, August 10th, 2009
4:40 pm
July bankruptcies up 85% from 2008 in Metro Phoenix
by Russ Wiles - Aug. 10, 2009 11:59 AM
The Arizona Republic

A lot of cash-strapped Arizonans probably wish they could send their financial problems on vacation right about now.

But job, housing and other money pressures aren't abating so far this summer, with Valley bankruptcy filings last month hitting their highest level of the year.

The 2,319 Phoenix-area filings in July represented an 85 percent jump over the pace in July 2008. They're also the highest monthly total since federal bankruptcy laws were changed in late 2005.

The financial pressures that trigger bankruptcies appear to be trickling up the demographic pyramid.

Read more...Collapse )
Friday, July 3rd, 2009
2:56 am
haircut
i haven't written on the economy/housing for a month, nothing new. Unemployment keeps rising and home prices keep falling. Here in the Coronado Historic District home prices have dropped to 1/2-1/3 of what they were just a few years ago, while in the Garfield District they've dropped even more.
--------
In the Coronado-
2322 N EDGEMERE ST
PHOENIX, AZ 85006
Week Ending Price
05/29/2009 $70,500
10/14/2005 $222,000
Source: Information Market
.
.
1106 E OAK ST
PHOENIX, AZ 85006
Week Ending Price
05/15/2009 $39,000
11/13/2006 $177,000
Source: Information Market
---------
In the Garfield
913 N 9TH ST
PHOENIX, AZ 85006
Week Ending Price
05/29/2009 $38,000
04/25/2008 $212,000
09/07/2001 $89,000
Source: Information Market
the above looks suspicious to me; in 2008 the crash was well under way.
.
.
1134 E GARFIELD ST
PHOENIX, AZ 85006
Week Ending Price
04/14/2009 $30,000
12/28/2005 $195,000
Source: Information Market
----------
Unemployment is nearly 10%; high unemployment and high numbers of foreclosures will continue to drive housing prices even lower.
Saturday, June 27th, 2009
4:47 am
Tuesday, June 9th, 2009
4:49 pm
Thursday, June 4th, 2009
10:46 pm
Schadenfreude is nothing to be ashamed of
i did a little digging, these were apartment-to-condo conversions
--------------------

Investor acquires unsold condo unitsRead more...Collapse )
Sunday, May 24th, 2009
7:48 pm
ya just can't make this stuff up
BEND -- Once upon a time not so long ago, developers seeking magic money poured $4 million into a "Lord of the Rings" subdivision here complete with hobbit holes and thatch-roof houses.

This month Umpqua Bank, which foreclosed on The Shire, unloaded the moribund development for just $750,000. Read more...Collapse )
Tuesday, May 19th, 2009
6:47 am
Wednesday, April 29th, 2009
4:36 am
Rate of decline eases in 16 cities
This chart is based on the Case-Schiller data released yesterday. It shows the rate of decline in housing prices eased in 16 of the 20 top markets in February. One month does not a trend make, but it is a hopeful sign.
Saturday, April 25th, 2009
11:07 am
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